Italy and Spain have emerged as significant recipients of the Next Generation EU fund, with Italy allocated approximately €194 billion and Spain receiving around €100 billion. These amounts represent 11% and 8% of their respective GDP figures from 2019.
Research by the advisory firm Prometeia indicates that despite the shared financial foundation, the two countries have experienced markedly different economic trajectories since 2020, with Spain achieving notably higher growth rates.
From the fourth quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2025, Italy’s GDP grew by 7.1%, while Spain’s increased by 10.6%, surpassing the euro area average of 6.8%. This divergence in growth became more pronounced in the aftermath of the pandemic recovery, with Spain recording cumulative growth of 10.2% between the second quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to just 2.2% in Italy. Per capita GDP growth figures further illustrate this disparity, with Spain at 6.5% and Italy at 2.5%.
Prometeia attributes Spain’s superior performance to a significant rise in general government spending, which increased by 18.6% compared to just 7.3% in Italy, driven largely by public sector employment growth.
Additionally, Spain outperformed Italy in investment in intangible assets, growing by 40% versus 23% in Italy. Intangible investments now represent 42% of total investments in Spain, which is approximately 10 percentage points higher than in Italy.
The dynamic nature of Spain’s service exports, particularly in tourism and technology, has also contributed positively to its economic stance. In contrast, Italy has seen construction investment play a more central role, significantly influencing both the residential and, more recently, the non-residential markets, fueled by the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) allocations.
The distinct frameworks of the NRRPs in each country highlight the varying paths their demand components have taken. Prometeia notes that while Italy focused its resources largely on construction, Spain emphasized digitalization, innovation, and energy transitions, with a strong focus on high-tech investments that support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The European Commission has noted a more substantial sectoral impact related to digital industries in Spain.
In assessing the overall growth implications, Prometeia concludes that the direct benefits of the Plans appear to moderately favor Italy by around 0.2 percentage points, correlating with the scale of the initial allocations. However, overall growth disparities between the two nations do not seem solely attributable to the direct influence of the NRRP.