This week, both Polymarket and Kalshi acknowledged several instances of insider trading on their platforms. The most notable case involves the arrest of Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a member of the U.S. special forces, linked to trades on Polymarket concerning the potential arrest of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
The major prediction market companies have stated they are taking disciplinary measures in response to the insider trading incidents and are cooperating with both law enforcement and regulatory bodies. However, they have yet to mention offering refunds to everyday users who may have participated in the affected markets.
Prosecutors allege that Van Dyke leveraged direct knowledge of military operations to generate profits exceeding $400,000 from an investment of around $33,000 in various event markets, including:
- “Maduro out by January 31, 2026?”
- “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?”
- “U.S. Forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026?”
- “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?”
As of Friday afternoon, Polymarket had not provided any updates regarding refunds on these event markets, nor had it communicated this information through X or Discord, where it typically shares important updates. The company did not respond to inquiries from Money regarding the matter.
On X, multiple users inquired about the potential for refunds for their bets placed in markets impacted by insider trading or manipulation. One user specifically questioned, “So you’re going to refund the bets right? Since the contest and odds were illegally compromised?”
Another user approached the topic by asking, “What happens now? Does Polymarket refund?” This inquiry referred to Paris weather markets reportedly exploited by an individual using a heating device to skew temperature readings at Charles de Gaulle airport. The specific markets in question were:
- “Highest temperature in Paris on April 6?”
- “Highest temperature in Paris on April 15?”
Similar to the previously mentioned markets, no refund notifications were posted on Polymarket’s website regarding bets placed on these weather events as of Friday.
Polymarket’s terms of service outline a strict refund policy, stating, “Contracts such as the Contracts available on the Platform are highly experimental, risky, and volatile. Transactions entered into in connection with the Contracts are irreversible, final and there are no refunds.”
According to PolymarketGuide, a community-maintained resource, the platform occasionally issues refunds for markets that are launched with faulty rules or undergo changes after their debut. The guide notes, “In rare cases, Polymarket may decide to make users whole when a market resolves incorrectly.”
Typically, notifications about refunds are communicated through a dedicated Polymarket Discord channel known as “market-updates.” Customer support messages indicate that refunds have been provided for several markets in April; however, none pertain to the aforementioned markets.
On Wednesday, Kalshi announced fines and sanctions in response to insider trading cases involving congressional candidates betting on their own primaries. Kalshi has not commented on the potential for refunds for participants in those markets.