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There is growing concern in Silicon Valley that progress around artificial intelligence is slowly “running out of steam.” CNBC’s Deirdre Bosa explores whether progress in AI is slowing and what that means for the industry. The first signs of struggle are bubbling among the big names in technology. As Bosa points out, the first sign of a slowdown was the lack of progression between models. OpenAI has led the pack in AI advancements, with each of ChatGPT’s new models exponentially better than the last.
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Unfortunately, the same cannot be said today. OpenAI’s highly anticipated model, Orion, was intended to be a revolutionary system bringing us closer to AGI. However, the initial vision is being revised downwards.
“Even though Orion’s performance eventually exceeded that of previous models, the increase in quality was much less compared to the jump between GPT-3 and GPT-4, the last two flagship models released by the company, according to some OpenAI employees who have used or tested Orion.
The same obstacles have occurred with other AI models, like Anthropic’s. Just like OpenAI, Anthropic is also witnessing a schedule slip for the release of its long-awaited Claude model called 3.5 Opus.
“The AGI bubble is bursting a bit. It’s become clear that ‘different training approaches’ might be needed to make AI models work really well on a variety of tasks.”
Even some of the big tech giants aren’t excited about the advances AI is making. Speaking at the New York Times’ annual DealBook Summit at Jazz at Lincoln Center, Sundar Pichai said generative AI won’t change lives in 2025, at least not any more than it already has.
“I think progress is going to get more and more difficult. When I look at (2025), the lowest hanging fruit is gone. The slope is steeper… It will definitely take deeper breakthroughs to move to the next stage.”
However, if progress stagnates, it is because of the laws of scaling. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei says scaling laws are a misnomer. He points out that while these models have historically guided AI development – suggesting that increased data and computing power leads to improved AI capabilities – it is not guaranteed that ‘they will continue indefinitely.