Rivian Adjusts Profitability Expectations Amid Rising Autonomy Costs
Rivian has revised its profitability forecast, indicating that it no longer anticipates achieving its long-awaited goal of becoming EBITDA positive by 2027. This change, disclosed on Thursday, stems from the substantial investments the company is making in its autonomous driving initiatives.
In its recent disclosure, Rivian shared that it does not expect to reach EBITDA positivity next year, attributing this setback to escalating research and development costs as it accelerates efforts to advance its self-driving technology.
This significant announcement was buried within a regulatory filing that also highlighted Rivian’s new collaboration with Uber to create robotaxi versions of its upcoming R2 SUV for Uber’s extensive ride-hailing platform. Despite the significance of this partnership, Rivian refrained from providing further comments beyond the information included in the filing.
Historically, Rivian had assured shareholders that it could achieve positive EBITDA by 2027, contingent upon the successful launch of the R2 SUV and an increase in software revenue. However, the company is currently facing numerous challenges in reaching that target. Notably, the discontinuation of the federal EV tax credit, a reduction in its capacity to sell regulatory credits to other automakers, and rising costs driven by tariffs have all contributed to the difficulties in maintaining its profitability trajectory.
Market analysts are aligning with Rivian’s cautious outlook. Joseph Spak from UBS pointed out in February that he predicts the company will not record positive EBITDA for several years. Compounding its financial struggles, Rivian disclosed that it incurred total net losses of $27 billion since its inception in 2009 through the end of 2025.
The primary factor delaying Rivian’s EBITDA positive target is its significant expenditure on self-driving technology development. According to founder and CEO RJ Scaringe, the company is currently channeling more resources into research and development for its autonomy efforts than into any other area. Rivian’s annual filing indicated that its R&D spending rose to $1.7 billion in 2025, up from $1.6 billion the previous year, with the increase attributed to heightened engineering, design, development, and software costs linked to its R2 initiatives as well as AI and autonomy projects.
As part of its technological advancements, Rivian is developing a proprietary large driving model and has created a custom processor along with an “autonomy computer” to support its software. The company aims to introduce a hands-free, eyes-off driving experience next year, with ambitions for its electric vehicles to achieve “personal L4” driving, a designation established by the Society of Automotive Engineers denoting autonomous operation in specific environments without human input.
The partnership with Uber represents a new chapter for Rivian beyond its previously disclosed efforts. This collaboration involves an investment from Uber of up to $1.25 billion in Rivian, with the potential purchase of 50,000 R2 SUVs over time. Initially, Uber will invest $300 million and order 10,000 R2 vehicles, with many aspects of the arrangement expected to materialize around 2030.
In addition to these financial commitments, Rivian faces several significant expenditures in the coming months, including the construction of a new manufacturing facility in Georgia. Production of the R2 is expected to commence soon, and Rivian has informed investors that it anticipates spending between $1.95 billion and $2.05 billion in the current fiscal year.