Walsh Trading’s Market Outlook for Early 2026
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Current Livestock Market Dynamics
The livestock markets have recently reacted to rumors that the New World screwworm may be appearing in Texas, leading to a significant price fluctuation. Traders exited long positions ahead of the three-day holiday, causing a drop in prices. Despite the Texas Agriculture Commissioner’s announcement regarding the likelihood of the butcher worm showing up in Texas, the USDA has not confirmed these stories. The situation appears linked to the push for open borders to allow cheaper Mexican cattle back into Texas.
Market Performance and Projections
April Live Cattle became the primary contract, trading as high as $238.60 before falling to $231.275 near the bearish limit price, finally recovering to settle at $233.975. This price action formed a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern in the daily chart. Similarly, March feeder cattle saw a significant decline, opening at $365.00 before crashing to $355.30 and managing a slight recovery to $356.45.
If April Live Cattle maintains its settlement level, we may test resistance around $235.625, with further resistance at $238.125. Conversely, a breakdown could retest the 21-DMA support level of $231.35.
Feeder Cattle Index and Canned Beef Cuts
The Feeder Cattle Index has risen to $370.15 as of January 15, 2026. Additionally, canned beef cuts have seen an increase; choice cutouts rose by $1.61 to $362.38, and picks increased by $0.48 to $360.19. The choice/selection gap has widened to $2.19.
Slaughter Estimates and Market Insights
Friday’s estimated slaughter count is at 92,000, an increase from last week’s 86,000, but lower than the previous year’s 114,405. Furthermore, the USDA report indicates significant live cattle cash trading activity across major markets, with numbers reflecting good demand, especially in Nebraska. Negotiated rates have shown a stable increase in both live and dressed purchases.
Contact Information for Expert Consultation
For personalized options regarding your livestock marketing needs, feel free to call me for a free consultation.
Ben Di Costanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109