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Home » “No one would be surprised” if OpenAI “disappeared next Monday”
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“No one would be surprised” if OpenAI “disappeared next Monday”

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Everywhere CEO of C3.ai Tom Siebel will he answer the same question about the future of AI.

“Everyone asks me, ‘Is there a bubble here?’ »There is absolutely a bubble. It’s huge,” he said. Fortune in an exclusive interview at C3.ai’s New York offices in Midtown We work.

Over the past two years, analysts have thoughtful whether AI companies, both public and private, could possibly be up to the task to their high evaluations. Tom Siebel, who built his career in Silicon Valley as a sales executive at Oracle before leaving to create his own business which he finally sold to his former employer for $5.8 billion, the current state of AI reminded him of the Internet bubble. Even then, a great and wonderful technology – the Internet – could not prevent a multitude of businesses from collapsing.

“So we have this similar phenomenon with generative AI that we saw with previous technologies,” Siebel said. “The market is grossly overvalued.”

Technical analysts who Fortune The interviewees generally agreed with Siebel’s view that valuations across the sector were inflated. “For now, virtually every notable AI company enjoys some degree of investor hype,” said Sandeep Rao, principal researcher at Leverage Shares, an ETP provider.

C3.ai specializes in enterprise AI applications that help companies with various business functions such as optimizing their supply chain, predictive maintenance, and monitoring their sales process. It also has a string of lucrative government contracts with the likes of the US Department of Defense and the US Air Force. Among its largest private sector clients are the oil and gas giant Shell and energy company Baker Hughes (whose contract is to renew Soon).

Earlier this week, C3.ai added another premier partner to its ranks when it announcement a partnership with Microsoft. FortuneSiebel’s interview was conducted before the partnership was publicly revealed.

Siebel notably targeted OpenAI, the startup closely linked to Microsoft and it is perhaps the one most closely associated with the AI ​​revolution. OpenAI currently has a Valuation of $157 billion following a funding round in October in which it raised $6 billion. Siebel was not impressed by this assessment.

“No one would be surprised if this company disappeared next Monday,” he said.

When Fortune Venturing that industry observers would be surprised, Siebel responded that he “disappeared” on Thanksgiving, a reference to the brief expulsion from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman in 2023.

“If it disappeared, it wouldn’t make a difference in the world,” Siebel said of OpenAI. “Nothing would change. I mean, no one’s life would change. No business would change. Microsoft would find something else to power Copilot. There are about 10 other products available that would do just as well.

The OpenAI brand has cachet because it was first to market, but that alone cannot guarantee its market position in perpetuity, said Paul Marino, chief revenue officer at Themes ETF, an exchange-traded fund. exchange based in Greenwich, Connecticut. Just because you are very well known doesn’t mean you can’t be copied, reproduced and maybe even surpassed,” Marino said.

According to Rao, there are differences between major language models, but they are difficult to understand. “LLMs are highly exclusive and it is not easy to make definitive distinctions,” he said.

Their success, he added, is often due as much to their business relationships as the underlying technology. “The advantage of an LLM is not necessarily dictated by quality, but rather could be dictated by low-cost barriers and ease of use with existing technology,” Rao said.

In this regard, OpenAI certainly fits the bill, having established deep ties with Microsoft.

OpenAI did not respond to a request for comment regarding Siebel’s comments.

Siebel also sees overvaluations in early-stage AI startups.

“There is a long list of AI startups in Illinois, Wisconsin, Stanford, that are being funded today on Sand Hill Road, where very few ideas are coming from very inexperienced people, who are going to create AI applications. “Generative AI for dentist offices, veterinarians, or divorce lawyers and these ideas are funded at multi-billion dollar valuations,” Siebel said. “It’s just five people who don’t know anything. (with) four pages of business plan. It’s crazy.

Over the past few years, a wave of AI startups with very specific use cases has emerged, some of which have indeed sold or raised funds at high valuations. Their track records have been mixed. In August 2023, Casetext, specializing in AI for legal purposes, was sold to Thomson Reuters for $650 million. JasperAI, an AI-focused startup for marketing services, raised $125 million at a valuation of $1.5 billion in a Series A in June 2023 only for reduces its internal valuation three months later, according to The information.

Large tech giants that develop their own suite of AI products are exempt from Siebel’s criticism. Microsoft and Amazonhe said, are “great companies” that are not overvalued. Neither do chipmakers Nvidia and TSMC. “If TSMC went bankrupt, it would be the end of the world,” he said.

When asked where C3.ai fits in, Siebel naturally has no doubts. “C3.ai is a good deal, okay? I mean, he’s a value stock buddy,” he said.

Disclosure: Alan Murray, the former CEO of Fortune Media is a member of the board of directors of C3.ai.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

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