B2B payments market projections have landed at $3.4 trillion by 2031, according to Mordor Intelligence. That headline number has fueled debate across the fintech industry about what it means for smaller players. So we asked three leaders a direct question: how should SME distributors prepare their payment infrastructure for this shift?
Their answers ranged from open banking and virtual cards to cryptocurrency self-custody and modular API integrations. Each perspective, however, reveals different priorities for businesses trying to navigate the next wave of B2B payment transformation.
The $3.4 Trillion B2B Payments Market Forecast
Mordor Intelligence estimates the global B2B payments market will grow from $1.42 trillion in 2025 to $3.43 trillion by 2031, reflecting a 15.48% CAGR. Other research firms project similar endpoints over longer timelines. Precedence Research, for instance, forecasts $3.79 trillion by 2034 at a more conservative 9.14% CAGR. Coherent Market Insights targets $3.02 trillion by 2031 at 9.7%. Meanwhile, Juniper Research reports total B2B transaction volume already reached $186 trillion in 2025, though that measures raw payment flows rather than the platform and services layer.
Regardless of which forecast proves most accurate, one thing is clear. Only 5% of mid-sized companies have fully automated their accounts payable and receivable processes, which leaves enormous room for growth in the B2B payments market.
George Wills sees this gap as an opportunity for distributors to rethink their entire payment approach.
“Businesses should stop looking at payments as a cost item. The winners in 2031 will have built a bi-directional payments stack, where they minimise interchange on pay-in, but maximise interchange on pay-out. On Pay-in, we are seeing open-banking really start to take a foothold and we’re expecting this to accelerate throughout 2026 and the next 5 years. On Pay-out, significant sums await businesses that pay partners with Virtual Cards. This will help turn payments from a cost centre to a profit-centre.”
- George Wills, Co-founder and Director of Growth & Strategy, Opt-ic
His argument carries weight. The UK alone surpassed 13.3 million active open banking users by March 2025, representing a 40% year-over-year increase. Additionally, global virtual card payments reached $5.2 trillion in 2025, with 76% originating from B2B transactions. Buyers using virtual cards for supplier payments typically receive interchange rebates between 0.10% and 1.50% of total spend. As a result, some companies have already converted their payment operations into a net revenue stream rather than a pure cost drain.
B2B Payments Market Risks That Projections Miss
Not everyone shares the optimism around trillion-dollar forecasts. Riccardo Spagni, a South African entrepreneur and former lead maintainer of the Monero cryptocurrency project, pushed back sharply on the entire framing.
“Ah yes, the magical 2031 projection. I love a good arbitrarily massive number.
SMEs shouldn’t be preparing for a market size. They should be preparing for adversarial environments. Stop relying on a single payment processor that can de-platform you because an algorithm flagged your business model. Stop using transparent blockchains where your competitors can see every supplier you pay and every margin you make. That is a fundamental failure of business opsec.
You prepare by building redundancy. Accept Bitcoin. Use privacy-enhancing tools like Monero. Understand self-custody. The men with tanks and nuclear weapons aren’t going to fix the banking system for you, so you better make sure your infrastructure isn’t entirely dependent on their permission.”
- Riccardo Spagni, CEO and Entrepreneur, riccardospagni.org
His de-platforming concerns do reflect real cases. PayPal, Stripe, and other major processors have terminated business accounts with limited notice across several industries. Yet the B2B payments market for mainstream SME distributors carries relatively low de-platforming risk compared to politically sensitive or high-risk verticals.
Spagni’s cryptocurrency recommendations also face regulatory headwinds. Privacy coins like Monero were delisted from 73 exchanges in 2024 alone, a 43% increase year-over-year. The EU’s Anti-Money Laundering Regulation will also prohibit crypto service providers from supporting anonymity-enhancing coins starting July 2027. Consequently, most practical B2B crypto payments now rely on stablecoins with automatic fiat conversion rather than privacy-focused alternatives.
Building Modular Infrastructure for the B2B Payments Market
Sudhanshu Dubey of Errna offered the most technically detailed perspective, focusing on infrastructure architecture rather than financial strategy.
“Many small to medium-sized business (SME) distributors still operate on payment systems developed for a time when digital solutions were not widely used. The immense size of the B2B payments market will create a need for API-driven payment systems capable of providing real-time reconciliation of transactions after 2031. The challenge will be the tendency for businesses to try to ‘rip-and-replace’ legacy accounting software when transitioning to an API-driven digital system. A better alternative would be to take a modular approach to the payment stack so that businesses can build up their ledger systems with automated reconciliation processes without disrupting their current operations.
If you are not currently automating your invoice-to-cash processing workflows today, you are effectively putting a limitation on your company’s growth potential. Future-proofing your infrastructure means creating a system that makes it possible for your payment data to flow directly into your ERP without manual intervention. This results in increased visibility and insight into your company’s activity. That visibility provides a significant competitive advantage to companies that can grow at a faster rate than others who may be struggling just to remain in business.
Preparing for 2031 is not primarily going to be about making specific future predictions. Instead, it is going to be about creating a flexible infrastructure that allows you to change your payment processing system when regulations and technology changes occur. Get the plumbing right today so that you do not have to replace your entire building when the value of the B2B payments market reaches a multi-trillion dollar level.”
- Sudhanshu Dubey, Enterprise Solutions Architect, Errna
His modular approach aligns with broader industry consensus. According to Stripe, banks spend up to 70% of their IT budgets maintaining legacy systems. Similarly, organizations integrating their ERP and payment systems report a 35% reduction in reconciliation times. These numbers explain why companies are increasingly choosing modular upgrades over full system replacements.
The B2B payments market modernization wave is already reshaping how distributors operate. FedNow surpassed 1,500 participating financial institutions by late 2025. ISO 20022 became mandatory for cross-border payments in November 2025, enabling richer remittance data that improves automatic reconciliation. On top of that, AI-driven automation adoption among finance teams jumped from 34% to 72% between 2024 and 2025, signaling that the infrastructure gap is closing faster than many expected.
What This Means for SME Distributors
The B2B payments market presents different opportunities depending on which leader you follow. Wills advocates turning payments into profit through open banking and virtual cards. Spagni warns against dependency on centralized processors. Dubey recommends modular, API-driven infrastructure that scales alongside your business.
All three perspectives, however, share one common thread. SME distributors who delay payment infrastructure upgrades will face compounding disadvantages as the B2B payments market accelerates toward 2031. The plumbing metaphor is worth repeating: fix it now, or pay far more when the pressure builds.