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Home » ASML maintains bullish outlook for 2030 on AI-driven demand
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ASML maintains bullish outlook for 2030 on AI-driven demand

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(Bloomberg) — ASML Holding NV, the Dutch maker of advanced chipmaking machines critical to global supply chains, reaffirmed its long-term revenue outlook as it bets on a boom in demand for semi- drivers driven by artificial intelligence.

Most read on Bloomberg

The Dutch company expects its 2030 sales to be between 44 billion euros ($46 billion) and 60 billion euros, in line with its previous forecast, according to an investor day statement on Thursday of the company.

The outlook is intended to reassure investors after the company’s order intake far exceeded analysts’ estimates in the third quarter, triggering a sell-off in its shares and those of other chip-related businesses. Chipmakers such as Nvidia Corp. have seen strong demand for their AI chips. But sales to other key buyers, including automakers and cellphone and computer makers, remained mired in a prolonged slowdown.

ASML shares rose 7.1% in Amsterdam on Thursday, the biggest intraday gain since July 31.

“A few weeks ago, we had a somewhat conservative vision for 2025,” CEO Christophe Fouquet said during the investor day. “In many ways this is linked to market developments. But looking ahead to 2030, we remain very, very optimistic. »

ASML expects growing demand for AI to help push global chip sales to more than $1 trillion by 2030, which it says represents an annual growth rate of around 9 % in the semiconductor market.

ASML is the only company in the world that makes the kind of lithography machines that help semiconductor companies in turn produce the advanced chips that power everything from Apple Inc.’s smartphones to AI accelerators from Nvidia. As such, it is often considered a bellwether for the entire industry and an early indicator of global semiconductor demand.

Manufacturing more advanced AI chips will mean semiconductor makers will need more of ASML’s advanced extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. The company forecasts double-digit annual growth in EUV spending through 2030 for both advanced logic and DRAM.

The company forecasts a gross margin of between approximately 56% and 60%​ in 2030.

While ASML in October reduced its sales forecast for next year, it announced Thursday that it would maintain its spending priorities. ASML currently has an ongoing buyback program of €12 billion until 2025, of which only 14% has been bought back.

“We confirm our capital allocation strategy and plan to continue to return significant amounts of cash to our shareholders through a combination of growing dividends and share repurchases,” said ASML Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen , in the press release.

The U.S. government’s continued efforts to limit China’s rise in the semiconductor sector, through repeated rounds of export controls targeting the sale of advanced artificial intelligence chips and manufacturing equipment of chips, also weigh on ASML’s prospects. The Dutch government is struggling to find a middle ground between its American ally and ASML’s largest market.

Due to US pressure, ASML was never able to sell its EUV machines to the Asian country and was unable to ship its second most advanced tools starting this year.

China accounted for 2.79 billion euros in revenue in the third quarter, almost half of ASML’s total. The company expects sales in China to account for around 20% of its total revenue next year. U.S. pressure on ASML to further restrict sales of semiconductor technology to Beijing will likely intensify, Fouquet said in an interview with Bloomberg in October.

Fouquet, who took over as head of ASML in April, told investors in October that he expects a slow recovery in the chip market to extend “through 2025.” Still, next year and 2026 will be growth years for the industry and for ASML as a whole, he said.

(Updates with actions in fourth paragraph.)

Most read from Bloomberg Businessweek

©2024 Bloomberg LP

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